| Economic survey by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) |
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18/03/2010 14:36 (696 Day 12:28 minutes ago) | |||||
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The FINANCIAL -- According to the Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), economic expectations brightened up slightly in March.
The relevant Credit Suisse ZEW Indicator edged up by 1.3 points to the 53.8 mark. At the same time, analysts conveyed a noticeably more optimistic assessment of the current economic situation, with the corresponding indicator surging by 33.1 points to the -2.6 level and thus hitting its highest point since October 2008. The lion’s share of financial market experts (74.4%) continues to forecast a prevailing unchanged interest rate environment on a six-month horizon. However, 20.5% of respondents already predict higher short-term rates for the same timeframe. Inflation expectations diminished once again in March, with the relevant balance dropping significantly by 28.5 points and reaching the 2.5 threshold.
According to the results of the latest survey carried out in conjunction with the Financial Market Test Switzerland, the economic outlook brightened up just marginally in March. The relevant Credit Suisse ZEW Indicator of economic expectations edged up by 1.3 points to the 53.8 mark. Hence, the ongoing sideways trend hovering at a relatively high level the last few months continues to prevail. The majority (56.4% (down 1.1 percentage points) of analysts still maintain a basically positive stance toward the economic trend on a six-month horizon.
The assessment of the current economic environment turned out to be noticeably more optimistic in March compared with the February survey. The corresponding indicator surged by a significant 33.1 points to the -2.6 level in the wake of a slight dip the previous month. The proportion of financial market experts who view the present state of economy in a “bad” light shrank by 27.8 percentage points to 10.3%, while in the interim 7.7% of the respondents regard today’s economic climate as “good.”
Regarding short-term interest rates, 74.4% (down 8.9 percentage points) of the specialists believe that rates will hold steady at the current level. The share of experts who expect rates to increase within the coming six months climbed modestly by 3.8 percentage points to 20.5%. Most (82.0%, up 9.5 percentage points) of the participants anticipate no change in the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the Eurozone.
Sentiment among the financial analysts toward the Swiss stock market continues to dampen. Although 59.5 (down 11.2 percentage points) of the respondents still predict that the Swiss Market Index (SMI) will gain terrain in the next six months, in the meantime 24.3% (up 9.6 percentage points) see the SMI stabilizing at the present levels. A proportion of 16.2% (up 1.6 percentage points) foresee the index losing ground, so the pertinent balance declined by 12.8 points to reach 43.3.
With regard to the future trend of the Swiss franc versus the euro, 35.9% (up 2.6 percentage points) of the experts forecast that the currency will continue to advance, while 30.8% (down 4.9 percentage points) assume the franc will retreat. The remaining one-third of specialists think the Swiss franc will follow a sideways pattern. The relevant balance for the exchange-rate outlook therefore increased by 7.5 points to the 5.1 mark.
The group of financial market experts who are looking for a spurt in oil prices in the coming half-year remained roughly unchanged at 54.1%. The analysts also believe that the trend in the price of gold will head higher: a share of 37.8%, up 6.8 percentage points. But while 29.7% (up 8.3 percentage points) expect the price of the precious metal to head lower, the relevant balance dipped in March by 1.5 points to the 8.1 threshold.
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