| The Challenges We Face |
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06/04/2009 12:14 (1039 Day 07:44 minutes ago) | |||||
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The FINANCIAL -- Fady Asly, Chairman of ICC-Georgia, states that the rally of April 9 will be the last nail to the coffin of the Georgian economy in an interview with The FINANCIAL.
Fady Asly has published a warning letter in address to the Georgian opposition party leaders. “Several Georgian opposition party leaders are oriented only at gaining political power and seem deaf to listening to others’ apprehensions,” Fady Asly says.
During the interview, Mr. Asly speaks about the ways that Georgia has tried to recover from the effects of November 7, 2007, events, August war and from the world economic crisis. The chairman of ICC-Georgia thinks that the August war between Russia and Georgia made Ossetia and Abkhazia regions appear more stable to foreign investors.
“I have met some of the leaders of the opposition parties and still continue to hold talks with them. We have also met people from the governing structures. ICC-Georgia is very active in such cases and we believe that we need to express our views openly towards each of the political parties. ICC is not a political organization, however political events do affect businesses; our organization and members will also be affected by the current politics. That’s why such proceedings must always be carried out in a transparent manner. We are trying as much as we can to arrange dialogue because this is the only positive and constructive way forward.”
Q. Solving problems with the help of rallies is almost becoming a habit of Georgia’s. Why do you think the situation today is so far from more civilized approaches?
A. Why people are not trying to solve problems in more civilized ways we should ask to the very people who plan to go protest on the streets. Frankly speaking, going out on to the streets and rallying is terrible for the image of Georgia. From the opposition’s side they consider street manifests a democratic move, internationally acceptable. Their opinion is that it is the right of everyone to demonstrate. But after my conversations with several leaders of the opposition parties I was very surprised to notice that few of them really realize the impact of these protests on the investment climate. People who are watching the protests from other countries will identify Georgia as a very unstable country. The obvious result will be the loss of potential investors.
Even some people from diplomatic circles, but not all of them, understand the meaning of the ongoing events. So we have to ask the opposition why they are so keen to remain on the streets. I can understand one day protests for the purpose of expressing your opinion, but a sit in with no political agenda, with no visibility, is extremely dangerous for the country. I’m very sad because I see the very good work that has been done over the past 4 years going to waste. Since November 2007 we have been going down the drain so quickly.
Q. Can you tell us in more detail the number of investors that have left Georgia and how that has altered the development of the country’s economy?
A. The November 2007 rally had a very negative impact on Georgia. Georgia was going up very quickly and the Government had organized through international media a series of advertisements about Georgia. They were on CNBC and other international TV networks. The world was very attracted to this country which was promoting itself so positively. Investors were coming alone, without the need of any prior roof here or protection. I met several investors who came here just from checking the figures of the economic growth of Georgia. All those figures are published by the World Bank and other international financial institutions’ databases.
The November 7 protest was an electric shock for the whole world. The developing events gave the impression that Georgia was not an ideal destination for investment and was rather an unstable country.
The Government could have been overrun and this message certainly scared off foreign investors. The investors waited. At first it was because of the expectance of the outcomes of presidential and then parliamentary elections. The period in-between has dramatically affected the investment environment. Then we had the August war which once again pointed to Georgia as an unstable place. The Russian aggression was followed by the world economical crisis. It further influenced the very few numbers of investors who were still interested in coming to Georgia. And now we are waiting for street protests. From my point of view this will probably be the last nail to the coffin of our economy.
After the November 7 protest investments were shortened and diminished for a short period only. Nevertheless the re-election of the President and parliamentary elections gave new life and foreign investors started coming to Georgia again. But now if the April manifest turns ugly or lasts for more than a day it will affect the investment climate. Every additional day of the manifest will be an extra bullet in the body of our country’s economy.
Q. If not counting this April’s events, would you say that Georgia’s attractiveness for foreigners has been restored?
A. The war had less of an impact on our investment climate than expected. For a short period only people were cautious but after that interest went up because of several reasons. The first is that Georgia has an attractive geographical position.
It may sound ironic but after the August war between Russia and Georgia, the two regions Ossetia and Abkhazia looked more stable to foreign investors. These two regions are currently under the control of Russia. This means that the risk of bombs exploding and other provocations is less. All these helped Georgia to restore its pre war attractiveness to investors.
But today we are facing another serious problem. We have to get out of the mentality of removing people by force. A sole agenda of removing President Saakashvili is first of all not a democratic approach. You can’t remove someone by force just because you don’t like him. We can’t have elections every year. Otherwise I don’t have anything against elections, just put this change in the constitution. Give us time to breath.
Q. What do you think are the main mistakes made by the Government that have led to this April 9?
A. I believe that those leaders of the opposition parties who have no political programme want to take advantage and take power. If not for the war in August, there would be some other excuse for the opposition. We should not forget where we were in 2003. Don’t you remember the time when criminality was so high and the streets looked like volcanic craters?! Much has been done since 2003. I’m not familiar with the accusations that opposition parties have towards President Saakashvili . Honestly, I’m not much interested in them because each has a different reason to blame him. But the bottom line is that most of them are interested in gaining power. They are not concerned with making improvements.
I heard one of the leaders of the opposition saying that they are going to put current Georgian officials in jail after coming to power. Sorry, but this is not the speech of someone who believes in democracy or the rule of law. This is the speech of one who believes in revenge. This won’t give us hope for change. That’s why we are very scared of what’s going to happen. People who are ready to sacrifice the economy, every employee and all of what has been done just to gain power are not a good sign for business.
Q. ICC-Georgia has an opportunity of negotiating with the President of Georgia and other members of the Georgian Government. How did you advise them to prevent the already planned April 9 rally?
A. You have 30, 50 thousand people who are really against the Government but you have another large number of people who believe there is a room for improvement. I’m one of those who still have hope for a better future.
What people don’t realize is that when they go on to the streets they’ll negatively affect the country and the whole economy. They might lose their jobs without knowing it. If you scare the investors and they stop coming to our country after what they see on the TV, employees will massively start losing jobs. Money won’t come to the country. Companies won’t be able to borrow money from the banks; organizations won’t be able to attract foreign partners, all due to this protest.
We need to think more with our brains and less with our hearts. Unfortunately everyone has a heart, but very few have a brain.
Q. What can the Government do to avoid the already planned April 9 rally?
A. There is nothing that the Government can do to avoid the already planed manifest on April 9, besides opening a channel for dialogue. The demands of the opposition should be more logical. If for example the opposition insisted on the Presidents’ suicide, claiming that otherwise they would go out in to the streets, this would surely be an illogical demand which couldn’t be negotiated. But if the opposition will ask instead for example for five ministers in the cabinet to be representatives from their parties, such subjects can be discussed around the table and not in the streets.
During the November 2007 rally our government was afraid to lose investors and it happened. Today the main question is what will the Government lose by street protests? - Nothing. In 2007 we were near to the top, but today we are closer to the bottom. As for opposition leaders they have more to lose with this manifestation. People who are going to follow them have some expectations and they are being promised the removal of Saakashvili . If they don’t manage to live up to their promise what will the response be? Anyway this loss for the opposition and loss for the Government is definitely a bullet in the head of the business community. I don’t see political maturity in many of the opposition leaders
Q. Can you name any business organizations and members of ICC that plan to stop operating in Georgia because of the unpredictable political environment?
A. It wouldn’t be right to name concrete organizations and persons, but I can say that there are many members who can’t borrow money from the banks anymore. There are many members who have lost their foreign partners too. These companies that keep working will start firing employees and there will be more jobless people. And I ask you, for what?!
The opposition has no international credibility. They are just destroying the economy by pushing. Should I get on my knees and beg them not to think with their pockets but with their brains?!
Q. In your open letter to the leaders of the opposition parties you mentioned the invisible enemy who is hiding while waiting for the opposition to complete a mission they couldn't achieve themselves. Whom did you mean exactly?
A. Who has interest in undermining our country except for Russia?! It’s really unfortunate that some of the opposition leaders are helping the Russian agenda to destroy our country, without even knowing it.
Q. Leaders of opposition parties proclaim that the April 9 rally will be a peaceful meeting. Do you think that the results of the rally will be fatal for our country’s economy, even if the meeting is held without any obstructions or violence?
A. Even if it is a one day protest and people carry pictures of Mother Teresa or Nelson Mandela it will be broadcasted on all international channels. Even a one hour rally broadcasting by international media will be enough to influence our country’s image. The main message will be that Georgia is an unstable country and it is unsafe to go there. There is a huge difference between new democratic rights to protest and the influence of these rights on the daily lives of ordinary citizens. So the overall negative effect will be felt by the citizens, opposition, businesses and the Government of course.
Q. What kind of results do you expect after publishing your letter?
A. I don’t expect any outcomes from my letter. There is a French saying: no one is deafer than the person who does not want to listen. Today several leaders of the opposition have an agenda only: to remove the President even if the price is a total destruction of the country..
The only reason why I wrote my open letter is history. One day I’ll go to them and say, in my letter, written on March 31, I was warning you not to do this, but you did it and here are the results! This letter is just a registering of the position of ICC-Georgia towards the developing events.
It will have no influence on the opposition because they don’t want to listen. Neither to our organization nor to someone else because the only thing they want is to get power.
Q. Should we expect a postponement of the rally?
A. I wish we had someone who cared about this country and who realized the impacts of this rally. Unfortunately very few people acknowledge the real threats connected with the demonstrations. That’s why we don’t expect an abolishment of the coming manifest of April 9.
A few years ago we had the same attitude towards the Government. We reacted then, when the Government was abusing their power. We protested fearlessly. We are defending the interests of businesses and there is no exception of who we might have to send a letter of protest to.
Q. On January 29, 2009, ICC-Georgia held its monthly meeting with ICC-Monaco Executive Director, Mr. Vincent Lozza. The visit was organized in the frame of ICC-Georgia’s strategy to facilitate business development between the members and other ICC National Committees abroad. What were the results of this forum?
A. Some of the businesses are already linked with Monaco. They are discussing doing business in Georgia, but the final results depend on the opposition. The rally of April 9 made us forget about doing business with Monaco or any other potential business partners of Georgia.
Q. The International Chamber of Commerce is one of the most influential business organizations in the world, presented in 130 countries with hundreds of thousands of members. Would you advise any of your partners to invest in Georgia during such a politically unstable situation?
A. I would advise them to invest in Georgia. The internal situation has always been very dramatic, but things never had a sad ending. I’ve been living in Georgia for12 years and I know that all these dramatic events will end happily. That’s why I will advise my foreign partners to invest in Georgia.
For spectators outside of Georgia it’s hard to believe that this is like a cartoon film and things will end happily. I am still negotiating with foreign partners and encouraging them to invest in Georgia. But this is not enough. The country’s image has to look stable so we can attract investments.
Q. Many members of ICC-Georgia were affected by the August war and world economical crisis. Which industries are in the worst situation today?
A. The tourism industry in Georgia has been extremely affected by the August war and world economic crisis. Trading business faced problems of receiving finances from banks. The most affected though was the construction business.
Q. Has ICC-Georgia started negotiating with its foreign partners in order to help your union’s members?
A. ICC-Georgia has special commissions, which separately work on avoiding the problems of these industries. Companies with the help of investors are trying to put the machine back into shape. Unfortunately our expectations of the already planned April 9 manifest do not help. The effect of the manifest won’t come on April 9 but has already started. Everyone is expecting unrest, so a portion of the damage has already been wrought.
Written By Madona Gasanova
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