| U.S. House Prices Defy Recovery |
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14/10/2009 10:42 (38 Day 03:14 minutes ago) | |||||
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The FINANCIAL -- Integrated Asset Services, LLC (IAS) one of the leaders in default management and residential collateral valuations, on October 14 released the latest IAS360 House Price Index (HPI). Based on the timeliest data in the industry, the "early-detection" index for national house prices fell 0.2% in August.
Though slight, the decline marks the second down month in a row for the big benchmark after a healthy 2.8% rise across the second quarter. With August's report, the leading U.S. housing benchmark in HPI detection is now virtually unchanged for the year, according to press-release distributed by Marketwire.
The South and West U.S. census regions weighed heavy on the national index for the month, with prices slipping 0.1% and 1.2% respectively. The Northeast and the Midwest both climbed a respectable 0.7% for the month.
Overall, the IAS360 HPI is down 8.0% for the trailing 12 months and a full 16.0% from its high in June 2007.
"Ordinarily, there's nothing ominous about a slowdown at the end of summer," said Dave McCarthy, president and CEO of Integrated Asset Services. "But these are hardly ordinary times. We know there's a sizable inventory of bank-owned homes out there that will be listed at some point, and that could ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market."
This "shadow inventory," basically foreclosed properties that remain unlisted and unsold, could cause a great deal of trouble for a potential recovery. When the shadow supply hits the market, home prices will be pressured, particularly in markets with large numbers of foreclosures.
According to the IAS360 HPI, which incorporates data from national, regional, MSA and county levels, several of the nation's hardest-hit areas may already be feeling the strain. The index reports two of the country's most distressed counties -- San Joaquin in California (Stockton) and Lee in Florida (Fort Myers) -- both of which were down nearly 50% from their high-water marks, falling another 7% in August.
"The IAS360 is designed to be an early-detection tool for the housing industry," says McCarthy. "It may well be showing us the first signs of a second wave of downturn."
The IAS360 House Price Index is an "early-detection" housing index tracking monthly change in the median sales price of detached single-family residences across the U.S. Based on all arms-length transactions, the IAS360 HPI tracks data for 15,000 neighborhoods, that roll up to report on the changes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions, and the nation overall.
Integrated Asset Services offers full service, end-to-end mortgage service solutions including valuation and data analytics. The firm's i-Series collateral valuation platform delivers a comprehensive combination of collateral valuation services that individually offer distinct and critical data, and when combined, a complete view of market volatility, local expert opinions and subject value. The company's data analytics provide vital data on the U.S. residential housing market.
Editor's Note: Additional IAS360 HPI data, charts, and interviews are available upon request. Data for 2008 and since the peak of 2006 are available at levels from national to MSA to neighborhood.
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