The FINANCIAL -- Obama administration and U.S. military officials insist that Iraq’s recent elections were a success and that the plan for removing all troops from the country by the end of next year is on schedule. But most U.S. voters remain skeptical about the situation in Iraq.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 15% of voters believe the war in Iraq is now over. Sixty-two percent (62%) say the seven-year-old war is not over, and 23% are not sure.

These findings are virtually unchanged from last July just after American combat troops were pulled out of all cities in Iraq.

Only 40% of voters are even somewhat confident that all U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2011 as planned. Fifty-six percent (56%) don’t share that confidence.

Those figures include just 10% who are very confident that the troops will be withdrawn and 19% who are not at all confident.

In July 2009, voters were almost evenly divided over whether the troop withdrawal would take place by the end of 2011.
Voters appear slightly more supportive now of helping out the Iraqis if the situation becomes more violent. Twenty-four percent (24%) say the United States should troops back into Iraq if that happens, up seven points from last summer.

However, 59% disagree and say the Iraqis should deal with the increased violence on their own. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters now believe America’s mission in Iraq will be judged a success in the long run. Thirty-one percent (31%) say it will be judged as a failure, and another 28% are not sure how history will regard the U.S. mission there.

In regular tracking on this question from November 2006 through May 2009, belief that the U.S. war in Iraq will be judged a success in the long-term ranged from a low of 27% to a high of 43%. In that same period, the view that the mission will be seen as a failure ranged from 30% to 57%.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters now expect the situation in Iraq to get better in the next six months, up 16 points from January and the highest level measured in a year.

Just 22% think the situation will get worse, and another 26% don’t expect much change.

Male voters are twice as likely as female voters to think the war in Iraq is now over. Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party believe more strongly that the war has not yet ended.

Yet while 69% of Mainstream voters say the war in Iraq is not over yet, the Political Class is more ambivalent: 29% say the war is over, while 45% say it isn’t.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of the Political Class are at least somewhat confident that all U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of next year as planned. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Mainstream voters are not very or not at all confident that that will be the case.

Democrats are more than twice as confident as GOP voters and unaffiliateds that all troops will be out by the end of 2011.

As for how history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq, 50% of both Republicans and unaffiliated voters say it will be seen as a success, a view shared by just 25% of Democrats.

Most voters continue to follow the news from Iraq. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say they followed news reports about the recent elections at least somewhat closely, but 31% didn’t follow that news very closely, if at all.

Voter confidence in America's conduct of the War on Terror is now at its highest level since last May. Fifty percent (50%) say the United States and its allies are winning that war.

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