Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy

Exports up 46.6% y/y in June 2017

In June 2017, exports increased 46.6% y/y to US$ 246.2mn, imports were down 0.5% y/y to US$ 638.9mn and the trade deficit narrowed 17.2% y/y to US$ 392.7mn according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 1H17, trade deficit was down 0.7% y/y to US$ 2.3bn as exports increased 31.8% y/y to 1.3bn, while imports were up 8.6% y/y to 3.6bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on July 19, 2017.

Money transfers up 17.1% y/y in June 2017

In June 2017, money transfers increased 17.1% y/y to US$ 117.7mn after growing 24.2% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from all major remitting countries: Russia (+10.3% y/y, 33.5% of total), USA (+14.5% y/y, 10.4% of total), Italy (+15.5% y/y, 10.0% of total), Greece (+4.1% y/y, 9.9% of total), Israel (+105.9% y/y, 8.9% of total) and Turkey (+22.2% y/y, 8.1% of total). In 1H17 money transfers were up 19.7% y/y to US$ 629.0mn.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: BGEO Group Eurobonds (BGEOLN) closed at 5.6% yield, trading at 101.9 (+0.3% w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 99.8 (unchanged w/w), yielding 11.1%. GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 105.2 (+0.5% w/w), yielding 5.2%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 109.7 (+0.3% w/w), yielding 5.5%. 

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 111.6 (+0.2% w/w) at 3.5% yield to maturity.

Equities

BGEO Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 35.13/share (-4.38% w/w and -4.33% m/m). More than 507k shares traded in the range of GBP 34.21 – 36.94/share. Average daily traded volume was 94k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, lost 0.04% w/w and lost 2.94% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.28% of its capitalization.

 TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 16.21 (-1.10% w/w and -7.00% m/m). More than 182 shares changed hands in the range of GBP 16.01 – 16.75/share. Averaged daily traded volume was 70k in the last 4 weeks.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 3.85/share (+4.05% w/w and +2.12% m/m). More than 41k shares were traded in the range of GBP 3.60 – 3.85/share.  Average daily traded volume was 28k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.03% of its capitalization.

Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 1,050mn (US$ 438.6mn). 

Certificates of deposit: NBG sold 91-day, GEL 20mn (US$ 8.3mn) certificates of deposit, with an average yield of 7.11% (unchanged from previous issue).

Ministry of Finance Treasury Bills: 6-month GEL 20.0mn (US$ 8.4mn) T-Bills of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on July 12, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 7.192%. 

Ministry of Finance Treasury Notes:

2-year GEL 45.0mn (US$ 18.8mn) T-Notes of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on July 12, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 7.659%. The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for July 19, 2017, where GEL 50.0mn nominal value 1-year T-Bills will be sold.