Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy

Exports up 8.3% y/y in April 2018

In April 2018, exports growth slowed to 8.3% y/y to US$ 229.2mn, imports were up 22.5% y/y to US$ 730.4mn and the trade deficit widened 30.3% y/y to US$ 501.3mn, according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 4M18, trade deficit was up 22.5% to US$ 1.9bn as exports increased 22.0% y/y to US$ 961.4mn, while imports were up 22.3% y/y to US$ 2.8bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on May 21, 2018.

Money transfers up 17.1% y/y in April 2018

In April 2018, money transfers increased 17.1% y/y to US$ 123.9mn, after growing 17.0% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from almost all major remitting countries: Greece (+35.2% y/y, 12.0% of total), Italy (+43.6% y/y, 11.7% of total), USA (+13.7% y/y, 10.2% of total), Israel (+31.7% y/y, 9.5% of total) and Turkey (+8.7% y/y, 7.5% of total). Meanwhile remittances were slightly down from Russia (-0.2% y/y, 28.5% of total). Overall, in 4M18 money transfers were up 21.0% y/y to US$ 478.9mn.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: BGEO Group Eurobonds (BGEOLN) closed at 5.9% yield, trading at 100.6 (-0.1% w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 100.5 (unchanged w/w), yielding 10.7%. Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 94.7 (-0.2% w/w), yielding 7.3%.
GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 101.1 (-0.5% w/w), yielding 6.3%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 104.8 (-1.2% w/w), yielding 6.4%.

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 105.8 (-0.5% w/w) at 4.7% yield to maturity. Georgia Eurobonds, YTM (%)

Equities

BGEO Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 33.74/share (-0.2% w/w and -7.17% m/m). More than 328k shares traded in the range of GBP 33.54 – 33.28/share. Average daily traded volume was 55k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, gained 0.98% w/w and gained 4.18% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.83% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 17.84 (+0.11% w/w and -4.80% m/m). More than 315k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 17.22 – 17.90 share. Averaged daily traded volume was 33k in the last 4 weeks.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 2.95/share (+11.32% w/w and +1.72% m/m). More than 404k shares were traded in the range of GBP 2.63 – 2.95/share. Average daily traded volume was 37k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.31% of its capitalization.

 Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 1,200mn (US$ 493.5mn).

Certificates of deposit: NBG sold 91-day, GEL 20mn (US$ 8.2mn) certificates of deposit, with an average yield of 7.29% (up 0.03ppts from previous issue).

Ministry of Finance Treasury Notes:

The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for May 23, 2018, where GEL 30.0mn nominal value 5-year Benchmark Bonds will be sold.