Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy -- Exports up 30.7% y/y in July 2018

In July 2018, exports increased 30.7% y/y to US$ 277.9mn, imports grew by 21.8% y/y to US$ 781.9mn and the trade deficit widened 17.4% y/y to US$ 504.0mn, according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 7M18, trade deficit was up 19.8% to US$ 3.3bn as exports increased by 28.7% y/y to US$ 1.9bn and imports were up 22.9% y/y to US$ 5.2bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on August 20, 2018.

Money transfers up 19.3% y/y in July 2018

In July 2018, money transfers increased 19.3% y/y to US$ 144.2mn, after growing 14.8% y/y in the previous month, according to NBG. From major remitting countries, money transfers were up from Italy (+35.4% y/y, 11.3% of total), Greece (+40.5% y/y, 10.4% of total), USA (+17.4% y/y, 10.4% of total), Israel (+28.0% y/y, 9.3% of total) and Turkey (+9.1% y/y, 7.0% of total), while remittances were slightly down from Russia (-0.2% y/y, 29.8% of total). Overall, in 7M18 money transfers were up 18.5% y/y to US$ 888.4mn.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 6.2% yield, trading at 99.0 (-0.9% w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 100.5 (unchanged w/w), yielding 10.7%. Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 93.1 (-0.9% w/w), yielding 7.7%.
GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 101.9 (-0.1% w/w), yielding 6.0%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 105.1 (-0.4% w/w), yielding 6.2%.
Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 105.6 (-0.7% w/w) at 4.6% yield to maturity. Georgia Eurobonds, YTM (%)

Equities

Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 17.38/share (+1.65% w/w and -7.96% m/m). More than 409k shares traded in the range of GBP 15.70 – 17.75/share. Average daily traded volume was 57k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, lost 1.10% w/w and lost 2.06% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.83% of its capitalization.

Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 10.39/share (+2.86% w/w and +0.83% m/m). More than 536k shares traded in the range of GBP 9.76 – 10.49/share. Average daily traded volume was 104k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 1.40% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 16.04 (-2.79% w/w and -6.96% m/m). More than 99k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 15.08 – 16.82/share. Average daily traded volume was 20k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.18% of its capitalization.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 2.55/share (-4.32% w/w and -3.41% m/m). More than 51k shares were traded in the range of GBP 2.50 – 2.66/share. Average daily traded volume was 31k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.04% of its capitalization. BGEO Group PLC (BGEO LN)

Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 900mn (US$ 345.2mn).

Ministry of Finance Benchmark Bonds:

The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for August 22, 2018, where GEL 30mn nominal value 5-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.